The Ashes: Can England come back at Headingley?

Matt Prior has said that he thinks England can still win the 4th Test as long as they dominate the first session today.  This shows the flaw in England’s strategy – they should be aiming to dominate every session, not just the ones after they have given up a virtually insurmountable advantage.

A quick glance at history tells us that there is no chance.  The last time England won a Test in which they scored less than 125 in the 1st innings of the match was against South Africa in 1907.  That’s 102 years ago, exactly the number of runs their so-called “batsmen” managed between them yesterday.  It was at Headingley at least, for those of you clutching at straws.

Since that match in 1907, England have been bowled out for less than 125 on six occassions, and five of those matches were lost by six wickets or more, four against Australia.  The sixth was the rain affected 2nd Test against Australia in 1997, when Glenn McGrath took 8/38 and bowled England out for 77.  The weather prevented the Aussies from finishing the job with no play after day two.

So, no, England cannot win this match because they have already lost it.  Their only chance of a draw is if a cataclysm befalls Leeds for the next three days.